Intention to return among the displaced

Current value

No figure of ours is published yet. The value is released with its full methodology - and with the response rate, however uncomfortable.

Comparative reference

References we measure against: UNHCR - no nationally representative figure with a published methodology exists, so our first wave sets the baseline.

Context figure

27% of refugees intended to return within 12 months, falling to 22% by June
UNHCR regional intention surveys - Jan and Jun 2025 - source

A context figure, not a comparable reference: Measures refugees outside Syria, who are outside our frame; we measure return intentions of the displaced inside it.

Indicator sheet

Definition	Share of displaced Syrians intending to return within twelve months
Unit	% of displaced adults
Domain	Social
Module	Rotating module - asked once every three quarters (group b)
Cadence	Quarterly
Standards	AAPOR Transparency; ESOMAR
Methodological reference	UNHCR

Methodology

This indicator is part of the Syrian Barometer: twenty national indicators with a methodology published before the number - the sampling frame, the sample table, the response rate and the field-safety protocol. Every correction is recorded in the public corrections log. The full protocol is deposited with a permanent identifier: doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22559474.

All indicators

Country direction - Trust in institutions - Citizen priorities - Perceived safety - Cost of a living basket - Poverty line and headcount - Perceived unemployment - Trust in the media - Electoral interest and intention to participate - Satisfaction with services - Assessment of the reconstruction path - Transitional justice - Perceived freedom of expression - Experience of informal payment - Intention to leave - The missing - Civil documents and legal identity - Psychological distress - Impact of explosive remnants on movement